I just wish we had a handle on how much voter suppression will affect those percentages.
We need to have Rachel and Ed and Lawrence and The Young Turks and Elliot and Stephanie and Randi, all doing stories about which states are preventing people from voting the week before the election.
It needs to be the ONLY thing all of them talk about, day after day for the last two weeks before the election.
Which states, i.e., are still actively preventing Americans from voting as if this was fucking Ubeckystan or some god damn place...
Two days ago I posted the Real Clear Politics battle map link and described the results of the map, I wrote:
I like looking at the 280 for Obama, Toss Ups 77, and Romney 181. I like looking at that mark in the center, 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win, and seeing the light blue going past that mark by 10.
I like seeing all those toss up electoral votes, all 77 of them lying on the wrong side finish line for Romney, even if Romney wins them all and he won't, Obama still wins.
Here's some voter suppression for Democrats, some voter encouragement for Republicans, and some media encouragement for breathless news-a-day organizations everywhere; all in one fell swoop. Here's that same link, that battle map has abruptly changed. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Few new polls have been added in the last two days, the ones I saw were running in Obama's favor, but suddenly the RCP Electoral College Map shows:
Battle for White House, 227 for Obama, Toss Ups 141, and Romney 170.
I'm looking at that mark in the center, 270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win, and seeing gray toss up states centered around that mark. I'm thinking 42 Electoral votes needed for Obama to win.
I liked seeing the spread of the electoral votes two days ago, I could relax a bit thinking about all 77 of them toss up votes lying on the wrong side of the finish line for Romney. Even if Romney won them all and he wouldn't, Obama would still have won. I could think about sailing and see what's happening with restored steam trains.
Damn this is so discouraging, it's suppressing my spirit. What's really galling about this is thinking about those smart ass Republicans cackling over Romney's impressive two day gain. It's like I can hear them at a table at a bar or restaurant somewhere I won't be going to, after this.
News talkers everywhere won't have to talk about them tulip festivals, new cute critters at zoos, they'll have their continued daily installment of "The Battle for the White House, Quad-Annual Un-American Bloody Un-Civil War."
The way Unreal Opaque Politics, the UOP, no longer the RCP, accomplished that was by deciding that toss up states were those states where Obama or Romney were ahead by less than about 15% according to the polls.
A margin of 65% to 35% is a toss up now! For Crying Out Loud!
I noticed if the polls were old they even set the bar a bit higher than 15%; or lower as I've pointed out there's a down side.
They suddenly up and changed the convention witch had been used for the last three elections. I mentioned above, there weren't many new polls during those two days, and as they went they were on average showing Obama making some steady gain.
While they took away 53 Obama fairly sure votes, Romney lost 11. This wasn't something has happened, this is messing with the numbers, this shit doesn't make Politics Real Clear. I said it two days ago, Unreal Opaque Politics, formally the RCP, is a low down sidewinder Republican outfit.
This is a Real Clear story about media and their partners covering politics this election. Being the politics this election, making the news themselves.
Someone in the media could take this story and talk some more today about it. They should do that, I'm busy, I'm developing a really bad mood!